My previous posts about “The end of Silverlight” and “The end of Flash” both raised active debate. The general view was that I knew too little about Silverlight and Flash to make such brash claims and whilst there is some truth in that it also transpired that the general awareness of what HTML5 can do today, and what it promises when complete is poor, and that is the issue that my run of posts on HTML5 has really sought to address. Hopefully for those that haven’t had any exposure to HTML5, my posts have been of value.
However, we know that Adobe is already building / supporting HTML5 development through tools like Dreamweaver and that Microsoft is also doing the same with Visual Studio. So at the very least in the short to medium term both will have dual strategies.
The longer term is much more difficult to forecast, there is a place for both especially for rich multimedia applications and gaming, but for business applications there is going to be small minority of applications that could possibly require them. In the report by Gartner (“The (not so) Future Web”, they too agree saying that “Gartner expects leading RIA vendors to maintain a pace of innovation that keeps them relevant, but for a gradually shrinking percentage of Web applications.”
The developer forums are now awash with an outcry from loyal Microsoft developers demanding to know the future of Silverlight in Microsoft’s grand plans, where once there was no doubt that Silverlight is core to Microsoft. IMHO I doubt Microsoft will make a U turn on Silverlight, but I will re-iterate that the need for Silverlight in business applications will lessen as HTML5 matures.
Whilst I’ve been an active follower and advocate for HTML5, what I see lacking is a roadmap and vision for HTML, a lot more detail about how the semantic web will evolve and what it means to developers in the short and medium term. This is something the vendors seem much better at and is no wonder developers buy-in to certain technologies over others.
In the end as always the real question is not which is the better technology but what is the appropriate technology for what you need to achieve and the audience and platforms you are targeting.