After 67 acquisitions since 2002 and market capitalisation more than doubling over the duration, Oracle has certainly demonstrated its ability to generate shareholder value through strong execution.
So as Larry heads towards 70 acquisitions with fresh management in his team, do we expect the pace to ease off? No way!
This is what we believe is coming into Oracle’s sights:
Market Capitalisation: As of today, IBM market capitalisation is $183bn and Oracle is only approximately 15% behind at $156bn. Larry wants to take IBM’s crown and won’t stop until he does.
Acquisitions: To bolster the integrated red-stack strategy, expect plays in:
- Storage - maybe NetApps, as EMC although a commonly speculated target, is perhaps just too expensive.
- Server - Dell might not be on many lists but we think so for several reasons.
- Analytics - Teradata is our top choice even after the Aprimo play.
- Core Applications - maybe small vertical add on’s in key industries but the Fusion machine is over loaded and under delivering, so we don’t expect much.
Red Stack Marketing: expect endless hype on Exadata and Exalogic success. Oracle needs analysts and clients to see and believe the future of the Sun acquisition.
ULAs and ELAs: Oracle has gone quiet on ULA and ELA contribution to earnings, but we see them simply getting bigger. It’s the steady way to predictable growth in earnings and ties down future support - its Oracle’s silent killer application.
Fusion: will be hyped late this year but we see further delays and an inevitable confusion for clients facing E-Business Suite R11 to R12 upgrade pressure whilst being teased about Fusion applications.
Litigation: After success against SAP, the lawyers won’t get much sleep. The Google Android case will be hotting up and the US Justice Department vs. Oracle will be fascinating. Oracle will also be a target for more ‘have a go’ cases such as 2FA after the Passlogix acquisition.
So expect to see us talking about these in more detail in the coming weeks.
What do you think?
Do you think we’ve hit the nail on the head? Perhaps there’s something else looming on the horizon to leave an impact on Oracle in 2011. Let us know your thoughts and we’ll get the discussion started!
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