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Explaining Open Source's Exponential Growth
March 17, 2008
Posted by: Glyn Moody
One of the problems with open source is that much of it happens invisibly. Whereas proprietary software, which is sold, has to publicised at some point, open source can simply be written: whether or not it gets used is a question of the author's personal inclinations.
Even the big-name open source projects – Linux, Apache, Firefox – have the problem that contributions are made in all sorts of ways, and that there is nobody really tracking who is doing what where.
That makes a paper from SAP Research's Amit Deshpande and Dirk Riehle particularly welcome, since they do the hard work of tracking down just how much coding is going on these days. They start from a hard core of open source activity, ignoring projects that are dormant:
For our analysis, we use the database of the open source analytics firm Ohloh.net, which has been crawling open source software code repositories since 2005. Our database snapshot contains 5122 active and popular open source projects written in 30 different programming languages covering 103 open source licenses. All data is updated on at least a weekly basis.
...
The database provides fine granular data of developer actions over the last 17 years from 1990 to 2006. We analyze the average amount of source code added per month for the time frame of January 1995 to December 2006 as well as the number of projects added over time.
Their conclusion?
We find that both the growth rate as well as the absolute amount of source code is best explained using an exponential model. Given that previous research showed that most open source projects grow at a polynomial rate, we suggest and then verify that the number of open source projects is growing at an exponential rate.
Here they are using “exponential” in its strict mathematical sense, not the loose hyperbolic one. That is, something that grows at a rate proportional to its current value; which means that as time goes on the rate of increase goes up. Obviously, this is not sustainable in the long term, but what it means is that open source creation is accelerating. It's not clear what the equivalent formula for proprietary software is, but almost certainly it is not exponential. It's not hard to see why there should be such a contrast between the two modes of software production.
Proprietary code has a very limited fecundity: it begets nothing outside its own immediate descendants, since its licence generally forbids use by others. Open source, by contrast, explicitly encourages its use by different projects. So the more code that is created, the greater the pool of code that is available for others to use and build on, which tends to drive even faster creation of new projects. As in so many other areas, this is something that proprietary code just cannot match – and cannot fake: the only way to get the benefits of free software is to become it.
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Comments received
Fitzcarraldo said on Monday, 17 March 2008
I've know for a while that in-flight entertainment systems installed by airlines are usually Linux-based, but this was brought home a couple of days ago on a long-haul flight as I watched Tux and the familiar Linux boot-up sequence appear on a fellow passenger's seat-back touch screen. Manufacturers have finally woken up to the potential FOSS has for embedded applications. Why pay the Microsoft 'tax' when a free, viable alternative exists? With the increase in smaller devices with embedded software, ultra-cheap PCs and laptops -- not to mention the huge number of legacy PCs that cannot run Vista -- Linux and other FOSS is really beginning to bloom. If you'd told me 18 months ago that I'd be using Linux and many FOSS applications almost exclusively I'd have laughed at you. Not any more.
zaine_ridling said on Tuesday, 18 March 2008
[Glyn]: Proprietary code has a very limited fecundity: it begets nothing outside its own immediate descendants, since its licence generally forbids use by others. Open source, by contrast, explicitly encourages its use by different projects. So the more code that is created, the greater the pool of code that is available for others to use and build on....
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Haven't thought of it this way, but considering how vague something like Microsoft's OSP is makes its confusing enough not to go near its development. That 'open source is simply written, whereas proprietary code must be publicized and sold,' reminds me of people comparing "sales" of Windows vs. Linux. Uh, Linux isn't "sold" at all unless you're an enterprise or you're buying a licensed distro like SUSE Linux Enterprise Desktop.
Great article.
On the other hand... said on Wednesday, 19 March 2008
Proprietary code works well in environments where the "minimal curve" of exponential growth cannot otherwise be achieved. There are lots of markets where this is the case. For example, if you ran a compliance firm in France for small businesses, you'd quickly find that the compliance software you write has no business being open-source - the market is small, the gains of OSS even smaller.
But there are plenty of areas where the trend is opposite - the more registratnts, the bigger the belack holde...
Rufus said on Wednesday, 19 March 2008
What a careless conclusion: Yes, Open Source encourages its use by different projects. But so does some proprietary software. It's called "libraries". And sometimes, one may wonder if the "library model" of re-usage is not more effective than the "not-invented-here model" than many open source projects use.
Also, what makes the author think, proprietary software have not had its exponential growth period? What would you call the first 10 or 15 years of Microsoft and other proprietary companies? Looks rather exponential to me.
I like Open Source as a competitor to Closed Source. But sometimes, its supporters just look at facts that support the made up myths instead of making a proper comparison. This entry here is another example of useless opinion pieces where the conclusion is not supported by the arguments.
Glyn Moody said on Wednesday, 19 March 2008
Well, last time I looked you couldn't just take any old library and use it. Most were available for use within the company that wrote them, or you needed to license them. That's clearly a barrier. With open source, by definition, there are no barriers. My point is that it trivially easy to take the work of others in open source and to build upon it; with proprietary software, there are obstacles, and so it is highly unlikely that the same sharing is going on.
I'm not quite sure where you get the idea that the "not-invented-here model" applies to open source when it applies more obviously to proprietary software. Every time a proprietary word processor is written, it has to be written from scratch: it cannot build on the code of WordPerfect or Microsoft Word. The whole point about open source is that you don't re-invent the wheel: you can build on the work of others.
As to the exponential growth of Microsoft, I suppose you could say that the codebase of products like Windows
Glyn Moody said on Wednesday, 19 March 2008
Here's the rest of that sentence - CWUK must fix this bug:
As to the exponential growth of Microsoft, I suppose you could say that the codebase of products like Windows has been growing exponentially – with the result that Vista is almost unusable, at least judging by the fact that few people want to upgrade to it from XP. But that's really comparing apples and oranges: the report I was commenting on investigated the total amount of code written in the open source world, not how much Red Hat, say, was writing. I think there are some comments on the original research about this point.