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The Outlook for Vista Gets Even Worse
November 28, 2008
Posted by: Glyn Moody
As someone who has been following Microsoft for over 25 years, I remain staggered by the completeness of the Vista fiasco. Microsoft's constant backtracking on the phasing out of Windows XP is perhaps the most evident proof of the fact that people do not want to be forced to “upgrade” to something that has been memorably described as DRM masquerading as an operating system. But this story suggests an even greater aversion:
Studies carried out by both Gartner and IDC have found that because older software is often incompatible with Vista, many consumers are opting for used computers with XP installed as a default, rather than buying an expensive new PC with Vista and downgrading.
Big business, which typically thinks nothing about splashing out for newer, more up-to-date PCs, is also having trouble with Vista, with even firms like Intel noting XP would remain the dominant OS within the company for the foreseeable future.
What's really important about this is not so much that Vista is manifestly such a dog, but that the myth of upgrade inevitability has been destroyed. Companies have realised that they do have a choice – that they can simply say “no”. From there, it's but a small step to realising that they can also walk away from Windows completely, provided the alternatives offer sufficient data compatibility to make that move realistic.
That may not have been the case before, but the similar poor uptake of Microsoft's OOXML, taken together with the generally good compatibility of OpenOffice.org with the original Microsoft Office file formats, implies that we may well be near the tipping point for migrations to free software on the desktop.
That doesn't mean everyone is going to rip out Windows and replace it with GNU/Linux, simply that they will stop upgrading Microsoft Office too, and start using OpenOffice.org on new systems instead. More people will come into contact with OpenOffice.org, and start using it at home – not least because they are actually *allowed* to take copies from office systems. Throw in Firefox usage that is starting to creep up to significant levels, even in the UK, and you have the recipe for a subsequent migration to GNU/Linux systems running these same apps that is almost painless.
I'm obviously not the only one thinking along these lines. Last weekend, Dell was advertising its new Inspiron Mini 9 in at least one national newspaper. This would have been unthinkable even a year ago, when the company's fear of upsetting the mighty Microsoft by mentioning the “L” word would have been too great, and is further evidence that GNU/Linux is indeed becoming a mainstream option.
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About the author
Glyn Moody Glyn Moody's look at all levels of the enterprise open source stack. The blog will look at the organisations that are embracing open source, old and new alike (start-ups welcome), and the communities of users and developers that have formed around them (or not, as the case may be).
Comments received
Thomas Wakefield said on Sunday, 30 November 2008
I liked your article, especially the comment about Vista "masquerading" as DRM.
As a linux enthusiast since '99 and now operating a small computer repair business, I have to work with XP and find it to be very much out-dated in it's look, feel and maintenance features.
However, I have noticed that many of my clients have no clue, or seem not to care what the OS is doing or what it looks like. It seems as long as that Doc. file opens, the browser displays a website, they can watch their youtube videos and get their email and open attachments, there is just very little concern beyond those activities. Which brings me to my point, that at least 70% of users will be around a long time to support Micro$oft very well indeed!
Merry Christmas to all!
Thomas Wakefield.
Victoria, B.C. Canada.
Since I have run Linux-Debian-Kde for years now, working in XP feels just
on the West Coast of Canada.
Shannon VanWagner said on Sunday, 30 November 2008
Righto... Humans must be enabled with OPEN and unrestricted technology. Period.
Thank YOU!!
http://healthysystem.blogspot.com/
Tim said on Sunday, 30 November 2008
I think your comments are right on the mark.
I bought a new PC with Vista a year ago, discovered that my three foreign language dictionaries would no longer work and gave up in disgust. A knowledgeable relative helped me install Ubuntu and I have never looked back. I do not anticipate buying proprietary software in the future. Ironically I subsequently installed a program called Wine on Ubuntu that lets me use my dictionaries again.
zaine_ridling said on Sunday, 30 November 2008
Thomas Wakefield (in the comment above) describes a typical 'normal' user. I think another phenomenon dragging down Vista is that people want stable simplicity. You can actually have this with some distros of Linux, such as Mepis.
But Microsoft endlessly expands complexity in its OS and apps, driven by what Alfred North Whitehead described in 'Modes of Thought' as "novelty." For those 'normal' or light users, they want a system that aids their lives, not frustrates it. Vista does neither.
Steven McMarshall said on Monday, 01 December 2008
You wrote: "From there, it's but a small step to realising that they can also walk away from Windows completely, provided the alternatives offer sufficient data compatibility to make that move realistic."
This is completely wrongheaded though is a common misconception of open source (read: linux) fans.
The key issue is NOT data compatibility. The key issue is interface. Linux has for years provided plausible data compatibility for most tasks. However, it continues to fail badly at good, usable interfaces because, organizationally, "interface design" is done as an afterthought by programmers who equate "good interfaces" with having pretty icons and neat looking menus. In practice (and this is NOT a matter of user training or familarity) intefaces on linux are poor - common tasks take longer and require more tacit knowledge. This is why linux consistently fails to make inroads on the desktop, and until linux people figure this out, it will continue to fail as so.
J Dunn said on Monday, 01 December 2008
It is incredible to me as I build my latest PC that the OS, Vista, takes up an appreciable part of the cost, around 30 percent in fact. Sure I could use Linux, but my apps (the bit of the software I actually want) run on Windows.
It's a legalised tax, pure and simple.
Toni said on Monday, 01 December 2008
You are dreamining about openoffice taking over from office. I gave it to my family. I had to put up with constant abuse and didn't get any christmas presents that year.
Now if they can rewrite and match the useability of thunderbird and firefox then that problem may go away, but until then, not a hope.
Glyn Moody said on Monday, 01 December 2008
@Steven: you're right that usability is a key issues, but the success of the GNU/Linux-based netbooks shows what can be done - and is already happening.
Allan said on Monday, 01 December 2008
People are increasingly less sensitive to the OS they run - after all for most people a switch form XP to Vista / Office 2007 is in many ways a bigger change in interface than they will experince in changing to a well configured Linux distro with OpenOffice.
Dell may be advertising mini laptops with Linux on, but have you tried ordering a full sized Ubuntu laptop form Dell - in the UK, you can't. Instead this weekend I paid to downgrade to XP so that I got media and will add Ubuntu myself.
Glyn Moody said on Monday, 01 December 2008
@Toni: I'm not saying "taking over", simply being used alongside. And as for that rewrite, there's Project Renaissance:
http://blogs.sun.com/GullFOSS/entry/project_renaissance_kick_off1
Glyn Moody said on Monday, 01 December 2008
@Allan: Well, I haven't tried recently, but I have sitting next to the Dell Ubuntu desktop a Dell Ubuntu laptop that I bought a few months ago. Have they stopped offering them?
Atrawog said on Monday, 01 December 2008
It's very hard to track and almost impossible to come up with real number, but my gut say that the Windows ecosystem is about to implode.
What is happening is that a lot of user who used to fix the Windows problems of there friends and family are currently switching to either Linux or Mac.
A few freaks switching there OS don't make much of a difference in terms of market share. But end user who continuously get told by their computer guy(s) that they either should stick with XP or switch to Ubuntu do make a lot of difference in the long run.
fibrewire said on Monday, 01 December 2008
To those of us windows and open source (read: linux) users in the real world - the problem has never been about interface design or usability, it has been about stability. And as the open source architects construct the internet (IIS? Please...) we congruently build our applications and web servers and networking topologies on top of stable Open Source software. And as the number of complaints of lacking "X useless feature" dwindle away to nothing, I guess the ones who complain the most are the ones I get to thank, because without you, us developers and network engineers and database guys wouldn't have a leg to stand on. And even though I have some difficulties with windows vs linux, I'm sure we'll hear the complaints, and come up with free solutions just for you! I guess the last hurdle the GNU bunch needs to figure out is how to PAY people to use their software...
Jasper said on Monday, 01 December 2008
Nice article. Most of what you say rings true at least to my personal experience. I don't agree about OpenOffice however. OpenOffice is an awful product and I wouldn't trade M$Office for OpenOffice *ever*. Mind you I barely use any office product and I am not a fan of MS Office. OpenOffice just manages to be a whole lot worse.
Larry said on Monday, 01 December 2008
As someone who has been using Linux for almost 10 years, I can tell you the #1 thing that will always hold it back - Lack of a universal package format. People don't understand what a repository is. They expect to be able to to go to a website, click a link, and install something. They don't(and I don't) see the need to have a version of a program not just for every distro, but for every version of every distro. That's the problem, and until that is fixed, Linux will NEVER gain traction. If I can download and install the same program on Win95 through Vista(or at least Win98SE through XP), WHY can't I do that under Linux????
Glyn Moody said on Monday, 01 December 2008
@Jasper: why? I agree about OpenOffice.org 1.0, which was awful, but I've been using 2.0 for ages and it's fine. Not perfect, not extraordinary, but fine for everything I need to do. Some people might need more, but most won't.
Glyn Moody said on Monday, 01 December 2008
@Larry: I agree this is important, but would change the emphasis a little. It has always struck me that one of the strengths of something like Ubuntu is the incredible ease of installing new apps: just go to Synaptic, select, and it's done - much easier than Windows, where you have to find the apps, download it, install it etc.
Now, you're right that there are alternatives, but I think that for most *ordinary* users it comes down Ubuntu plus a couple of others. With time, I expect a "winner" to emerge and for its installation method to become the de facto standard.
SW said on Monday, 01 December 2008
I've converted my whole house to Ubuntu. That's the firewall, my workstation, my girlfriends workstation, my daughters workstation, the guest workstation, our server and our media center pc in the living room. My 8 year old has no more trouble with linux than with windows, and she prefers it. When my family and friends come to visit, they have no trouble controlling the television or doing anything they might want to do on our guest machine. They sit down and get straight to work.
My brother has converted to Mac and Linux. My 8 year old niece uses Ubuntu on her desktop.
There will always be warts, and complainers. But nevertheless, Linux on the Desktop is accessible now.
The automobile has arrived, and Microsoft should get out of the horse-whip business.
Luke Kenneth Casson Leighton said on Monday, 01 December 2008
"They expect to be able to to go to a website, click a link, and install something. "
... such as viruses? :)
lkcl (long-term linux user)
Root said on Monday, 01 December 2008
My daughter wanted to try Vista so I installed it on her machine this weekend. Offhand it seemed quite speedy, until we tried installing some of her games (half of which wouldn't run) and found that none of our five wireless cards were Vista compatible.
She's back to dual booting XP and Ubuntu. Ubuntu for it's speed, apps, and those older windows and Dos games that won't run on XP.
Vince said on Monday, 01 December 2008
I work in financial services and attempting to use OpenOffice for any kind of heavy spreadsheet work is still out of the question. There is a very long way to go before functional equivalency with MS Office.
Glyn Moody said on Monday, 01 December 2008
@Vince: I accept that. But for the vast majority of users - like me, for example - OOo provides all the functions I am likely to need.
It's not realistic to expect OOo to take over everywhere, but I think there's a huge market where it could be effectively used instead of Microsoft Office.
Shannon VanWagner said on Monday, 01 December 2008
Here's some screenshots of my new Dell Inspiron 530n, preloaded with Ubuntu GNU/Linux:
http://healthysystem.blogspot.com/2008/11/dell-inspiron-530n-nvidia-9400gt-ubuntu.html
GreyGreek said on Monday, 01 December 2008
Selling a used PC with XP still on it is a violation of Microsoft's EULAs. Buying a used PC and using that copy of XP is, according to Microsoft, PIRACY!
Walking away from Windows and moving to Linux is the best action to take, both financially and ethically. Allow me to recommend PCLinuxOS.
http://www.pclinuxos.com/
Brian Grant said on Tuesday, 02 December 2008
MS has become the beast (IBM)they helped throw out of the PC industry back in the 80’s.
They have adopted a Take whatever I give you and wait until I’m good and ready to give it to you attitude. I’m an application developer and I can terll you that from my side of things its getting worst not better. WPF is a complete disaster that’s being shoved down the developer communities throat. The ADO.Entity framework is so bad that the testers started a partition to try and make MS hold off on its release. Of course that hasn’t stopped them. I actually read a post on MS where they compared the negative reaction to the New Windows 7 toolbar to the negative reaction to the Office ribbon and how long it took users to stop hating it (personally I still hate the thing). With that attitude I hope MS slips another 10-20 percent maybe they will wake up!
Sachin Duggal said on Friday, 12 December 2008
I was reading this
http://www.computerworlduk.com/community/blogs/index.cfm?entryid=1573&blogid=14
and about 30 mins earlier was speaking to someone in our engineering team (for what we are actually engineering check out www.nivio.com) - I really can’t understand why Vista happened the way it did - was it rushed? over ambitious? or just a wrong approach… now Microsoft is a great friend so I want to be careful and clarify that my obervations are purely “academic”
now this is a topic of great debate and many wiser and greater folk have written about this but i felt compelled after reading this and doing a quick scan of the guys in the office - it was unbelievable - 75% of the folks had installed XP on a vista machine as they either didnt quite get vista or had some compatibility issue with it with some application.
continued at...
http://sachinduggal.wordpress.com/2008/12/12/vista-vs-xp-is-xp-really-obsolete-i-mean-really-really/